Balance Sheet Expansion and Economic Growth in China

Onzième séance du séminaire BRICs de la FMSH et de l’EHESS. Elle recevra Yuan Zhigang (Fudan University, Shanghai), qui parlera des politiques monétaires et financières et de la croissance économique en Chine avec une conférence intitulée : « Balance Sheet Expansion and Economic Growth in China ».

La séance se déroulera en français.

Date

  • Jeudi 27  avril 2017, de 18h à 20h.

Lieu

Attention : La FMSH et l’EHESS ont déménagé pour revenir dans leurs anciens locaux 

  • FMSH-EHESS
    Salle AS1_24  (1er sous-sol)
    54 boulevard Raspail – 75006 Paris
    Métro : Sèvres Babylone

Yuan Zhigang is professor of economics at the school of economics, Fudan University, in Shanghai. He is also director of the Employment and Social Security Research Center, director of the Postdoctoral Program in theoretical economics at Fudan University, vice president of the Shanghai Economist Society, member of the international academic committee of  La Fondation de la Maison des Sciences de l’Homme (FMSH) in France(2013-2015), and editorial board member of many well-reputed academic journals. After he received his Ph.D. degree in economics from the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales in 1993, he has been working at the School of Economics, Fudan University, where he served as the school dean from 2004 to 2015, and the director of the economics department in 1999-2003.

Biographie plus complète de Yuan Zhigang

Abstract

Balance sheet expansion is crucial to understand the historic path, current slowdown and future trend of economic growth in China. As the financial system transforms national savings into investment, balance sheet expands simultaneously. According to changing impacts of balance sheet expansion on real economy, economic growth in China from 1998 to 2016 can be divided into the crowd-in stage and the crowd-out stage. In the first stage (1998-2007), balance sheet expansion crowded China’s real economy in, raised TFP dramatically and accelerated economic growth. In the second stage (2008-2016), balance sheet expansion crowded China’s real economy out, with stagnant TFP and decelerated economic growth. Balance sheet expansion has slowed down since 2014, but it continues to exert crowding out effects on China’s real economy. We argue that balance sheet expansion is crucial for China’s future economic growth. In the long term, structural reforms, especially reforms in the financial system, could increase growth potential significantly. In the short term, financial system reforms should focus on generating sufficient cash flows to boost aggregate demand.

Article en appui à l’exposé et à la discussion : « Balance Sheet Expansion and Economic Growth in China: Crowd in or Crowd out? »

Pour plus d’informations sur le séminaire, consulter le carnet/blog : http://brics.hypotheses.org et les sites :

À l’EHESS :

À la FMSH :


Monique Abud

Centre d'études sur la Chine moderne et contemporaine, EHESS, Paris, France

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Monique Abud

Centre d'études sur la Chine moderne et contemporaine, EHESS, Paris, France

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